@Article{PinhoMareSmit:2015:CoSoDy,
author = "Pinho, Patricia Fernanda do and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio
and Smith, Mark Stafford",
affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {CSIRO Climate Adaptation
Flagship}",
title = "Complex socio-ecological dynamics driven by extreme events in the
Amazon",
journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
year = "2015",
volume = "15",
pages = "643--655",
note = "{Electronic supplementary material The online version of this} and
{article (doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0659-z) contains supplementary}
and material, which is available to authorized users.",
keywords = "adaptive strategies, caboclos remote communities, policy and
conservation of natural resources and ecosystems, brazilian
Amazon.",
abstract = "Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade
have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian
Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for
coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the
regions hydrology (e.g., 10 m change in river levels between dry
and flood seasons), and despite civil defense interventions by
various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have
exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we
explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether
the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the
experience which shapes their responses to normal levels of
variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to
greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that
variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from
future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological
regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well.
Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies
for dealing with normal variability very well, but also identify
ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current
civil defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency
assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate
fashion. Combining these insights in the context of
socialecological change, we suggest how better integration of
science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to
future trends, and identify some contributions science could make
into such an arrangement.",
doi = "10.1007/s10113-014-0659-z",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0659-z",
issn = "1436-3798 and 1436-378X",
label = "lattes: 5719239270509869 2 PinhoMareSmit:2014:CoSoDy",
language = "en",
targetfile = "pinho_complex.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}